The Oil and War in March, 2026

 

The end of February saw the start of a laddered decline in the TSX Composite Index, which continued on Friday, March 20th, the first day of spring but the Markets weren't feeling any "spring back" that day.

I've been through a few major market crashes so I don't sell and wait it out. Rebounds come in time. Quicker these past years, thinking about Covid in February of 2020 and the market recovery later in that year. 

President Trump's wide sweeping Tariff hit on countries in April of 2025, which caused Markets to go off a cliff but not for long. This year, those Tariffs were deemed illegal by the supreme court so he's trying another tactic these days. 

Meanwhile, in mid March, I'm watching the Iran conflict that was supposed to come to a quick end but continues to flare up these days jolting the markets at times. Always a powder keg starting something in the Middle East with collateral damage. At this time, Iran has no intention of discussing a cease fire. 

No surprise oil is in the middle of all that and climbing upwards of a $100 a barrel and higher. Gas, jet fuel and diesel with higher prices for now. Groceries will cost more to ship. Talks of inflation will rise once again. 

The Central Banks of North America are weighing all that and decided to keep interest rates as they are in Canada and the US ... for now.

I believe in diversifying across a few sectors which helps in riding out these Market storms.

Being in Canada, the energy stocks are edging up while wanting even more pipelines and expansions to move more oil and natural gas to export. The oil barons get frustrated with red tape wait times and Federal/Provincial Government regulations about climate, the environment and carbon tax thresholds.

The pipeline and utility stocks make for decent gains and dividends for total return over time. With the utilities, Capital Power, CPX-TO in my portfolio is off it's YTD high so I plan more buying with a current 4.30% yield and an ex-dividend date of March 31, 2026.

September is when CPX tends to increase it's dividends. Being an estimate, it could be in the range of a 6% increase but all depends on their upcoming earning results.

There's a lot going on behind the scenes with that power company and CPX plans to bring more juice online for a data centre build in Alberta with the provincial government being pro Data Centres these days.

                                                      Capital Power, CPX, Year to Date Chart

                                  

I was delaying writing this post, while waiting for the 4th quarter and 2025 results from Power Corporation, POW-TO, which also has an ex-dividend date on the last day of March. POW increased it's dividend by 9%.

Interesting is GBL highlighted in their organisation chart along with Great-West Life, GWL-TO and others. 

I got curious and GBL, with headquarters in Brussels, Belgium has offices throughout Europe and London, GBL is a publicly traded company trading in Euros and pays a quarterly dividend, Groupe Bruxelles Lambert.

"with seventy years of stock exchange listing, a net asset value of €14 billion and a market capitalization of €10 billion at the end of December 2025."

GBL is a leading investor in Europe, focused on long-term value creation and relying on a stable and supportive family shareholder base.

Know what your investing in is a common investing quote. I try my best in this information overload investing world and weed out what's important to me.

On the energy front, I hold both TRP.TO and SOBO-TO and both are looking to expand their infrastructures with an ex-dividend date of March 31st, 2026.

Those are several stocks that are popular among investors which I personally hold and a reminder that these picks of mine are not investment advise, keeping risk tolerance in mind.

Hopefully, the Iran conflict will calm down and see a withdraw from the US and Israel plus other Middle East countries such as Saudi Arabia and Qatar being on the defensive from Iran's missile and drone attacks on their oil plants, shipping and storage. Until the next flare up.

In April, the Big Banks of Canada come to mind while down in price since the TSX fell this month while related ETFs are in focus on my end.

 

The Big Banks and Oil in March, 2026

 

It's been anything but calm in the market and political scene since 2026 rolled in. 

The latest major news is the Supreme Court ruled the bulk of President Trump's tariff hikes are illegal so he has downshifted so far while repayment of those tariffs into the billions is next in the courts with companies lining up to be repaid.

The current US and Israel conflict with Iran is driving up oil prices and once again, US moves are making me pay more with higher gas prices today. Hopefully for the short term depending how long that war will last with several Middle East countries engaged as well.

On the flip side, Canada's oil related companies will see more revenue for now. I own a few of those stocks such as Suncor, SU and TC Energy, TRP.

Currently, I'm looking to add to Keyera Corp, KEY-TO, one of that largest midstream oil and gas companies in Canada and ships to the US. With an ex-dividend date of March 16th, 2026 and a current yield of 4.11%, the Distributable Cash flow is around 60% which is what I like to see. 

All the Big Banks of Canada had good earnings reports recently. I like to focus on a laggard bank with these reports which has room for price growth but didn't happen this time around. All the big banks increased their dividends except Bank of Nova Scotia, BNS so far this year.

There are many bank related ETFs out there, ranging from capital gains focused with low yields to high and very high yield. A buyers choice depending on how much risk one wants to take on. 

One of these I hold for the income is ZWB, BMO Covered Call Canadian Banks with monthly distributions and a growth spurt of 33% within the last year. Top holding is ZEB, which gained about 50% this past year, assisted in that gain. 

New with BMO, is a lineup of 16 ETFs; Targeted distribution range cash flow units with monthly distributions. An example is ZWB I mentioned above but with a ticker of ZWB.T (T for target cashflow units). Interesting and I'll be researching those. Being new, there are no distribution amounts updated or performance on the BMO site. I'll wait for BMO to update on distributions.

Sagicor Financial Company, SFC-TO, I mentioned in a previous post has an ex-dividend date of March 27th. SFC will be a new addition to the portfolio which pays it's dividend in USD with a current yield of 4%. Sagicor has been in the investing news of late and hopefully a profitable pick to hold for the long term.

Mid month, I'll be looking at Capital Power, CPX-TO along with South Bow Corporation, SOBO-TO, which has been moving up in price recently. South Bow being the pipeline related spin-off from TC Energy and now in talks with the US to further expand it's pipeline network into the western States. 

With the stocks, I like to read up on the monthly stock carry-overs and additional picks by Bank investing pros like Mr. Mokhtari, CIBC's chief marketing technician and compare with other sources to see the latest news on the stocks in my portfolio and others that are interesting enough to add to my watchlist.  The above is not investing advise, just my personal opinions and goals.