Model Portfolios and ETFs for October, 2025

 

It's fall and nice to see the scenery with the leaves changing colors. The NHL hockey season starts this week. High expectations for Canadian teams to gain more points and get into the Stanley Cup finals. It's a long season and like the stock market, it reminds me of the old saying, "you can't score unless you shoot".

I look forward to looking over updates on model portfolios that are similar to mine. In the Globe and Mail, Gordon Pape headlines with Driven by Falling Rates, my High Yield Portfolio continues to soar, averaging 10% gain annually. Mr. Pape updates quarterly on the holdings, progress and sells if any with none reported for September.

With monthly updates, also on the Globe and Mail, John Heinzl's Model Dividend Growth Portfolio as of September 30th, 2025 followed by an additional article recently on the 4th of October, Eight Years on my Dividend Portfolio keeps Churning out Cash. Mr Heinzl owns the majority of the holdings personally.

It's easy to dissect the winners and laggers from these portfolios but over the years circumstances and interest rates change. For example, Enbridge, ENB.TO which has surprisingly surged 60% since it's lows a few years back with an attractive yield. I've held Enbridge for years. 

The stocks I have in common are many such as all the top 5 Canadian banks individually and in ETFs, energy/power, pipelines, insurance sector and companies like the Power Corporation of Canada, POW-T which has an umbrella like portfolio with companies like Great-West Life, GWO.TO,

Common with the two portfolios are companies like Enbridge, Pembina Pipeline, Capital Power and CIBC bank I own while others I looked at are not of interest to me but are to others. 

John Heinzl mentioned in his October 4th article that he sees an ETF such as Blackrock's XDIV as being good alternative instead of holding and keeping track of the individual stocks.  

I had to check it out. iShares Core MSCI Canadian Quality Dividend index ETF has a low management expense ratio of 0.11%. That's a plus with the top ten holdings I own individually being: TD Bank, Royal Bank, Suncor Energy, Manulife Financial, Sunlife Financial, Fortis, Pembina Pipeline, Power Corporation of Canada, Tourmaline Corp and Emera.  

Except for Suncor Energy, SU.TO and Tourmaline Oil Corp, TOU.TO, the other stocks mentioned above are mixed into the two model portfolios I mentioned.

I prefer pipelines rather than companies dealing with the ups and downs of commodity prices like oil and natural gas. 

Tourmaline is the only company at this time I'm watching more closely where natural gas is a popular subject these days but with current lower prices depending on the country and region. They have a new contract to supply Europe with natural gas while shipping to the BC natural gas ports which loads tankers bound for Asia. I'm sure management is experienced in adjusting to the ups and downs of the commodity. 

 

With XDIV, I'm also looking for growth as a bonus. With a near 19% gain for the year, and around 22% with distributions, XDIV is looking good and about matches my performance for the year.  The monthly distributions align with it's current 4% yield.

A decent ETF to hold that adjusts holdings to maintain performance.

On my list to further buy in October before the ex-dividend date of October 10th, 2025 is TD.TO which has certainly surged in stock price with a "year to date" gain of 48%.

What I'm debating is ... will some investors sell all or partially for the gains or does TD have more room to run with the new CEO saying he has investors in mind with share buybacks coming and boosting earnings per share higher in 2026. 

An individual investor's decision trying to keep human emotional thinking checked and try to get direction from the data available and current news. Not always easy. 

With the current bull run, some stocks are getting overvalued. Eventually, as history shows there will be another market correction where buying at lower prices comes to mind.

My alternative bank buy will be adding to ZWB, BMO Covered Call Banks ETF with a 16% gain year to date, monthly distributions and a generous 6% yield with net assets of 3.5 billion.

In the 2nd half of October, I'll be looking at Emera, EMA.TO which recently announced a dividend increase and ETFs I have an interest in with October being one of the slower months this year for quarterly dividend declarations with my stocks while November will ramp up again with several stocks on my additional buy list while looking over my growing Watchlist holdings to perhaps add to the portfolio.

Mega Projects for September, 2025

 

The first mega projects across Canada have been fast tracked by Prime Minister, Mark Carney for eventually exporting more natural resources to Asia and Europe and lesson the dependence on the United States although oil flows south to the US to near capacity in pipelines where the President wants more oil pumped and less "green" type energy sources like offshore wind projects.

What comes to my mind is pondering about the companies which will benefit from Canada's push for future development and there have been articles published about that recently. 

In a recent Globe and Mail post, energy and power/utility companies came up with names like Trans Canada or TC Energy, TRP.TO which is on my list to further buy before the ex-dividend date of the 29th of September. ATCO, which is diversified into power and natural gas. ACO-X.TO.

Of the four companies highlighted, Emera, EMA.TO and Hydro One, H.TO powering Ontario are also expected to benefit. First on the agenda with getting finances and interest rates ironed out, Nova Scotia has plans to build offshore Wind Farms that could help power the Atlantic Provinces and beyond where Hydro One comes into it, building transmission lines. However, that massive project is still in it's infancy and details need to be worked out to make it less expensive for all, targeting the 2030 decade.

                           Canada’s first four offshore wind energy areas (Province of Nova Scotia)

Currently, I own TRP and EMA for the long term. I'm going to add Canadian Natural Resources to that Globe and Mail list. CNQ.TO has assets in Canada and internationally. The 92 billion dollar energy company has a current yield of 5.44% and a dividend payout ratio of 60% with an ex-dividend date falling on the 19 of September, 2025. 

I find all this energy and power build up interesting, although these projects will take years to develop. What additional companies will come into the mix that payout decent dividends? Time will tell. The Feds also want a pipeline from Alberta, through Northern BC to feed shipping ports that have been built with expansions in the works. No company has an interest in building that pipeline so far.

Popular stocks that come up a lot that I have earmarked for buying before months end for September are Capital Power Corporation, CPX.TO and Power Corporation of Canada, POW.TO.

It's wise to check Graham numbers and many a stock are overvalued currently, with some reaching yearly highs. Hold or further buy I think about but I forge ahead with the over-valued stocks I own on a dollar-cost-averaging approach. There will always be fluctuations, highs and lows in future years while I accumulate more shares for the dividends, which tends to further drive the stock price up on average across the portfolio, especially with companies and banks increasing their dividends yearly. 

Looking ahead to October, it's one of those slower months of the year for my portfolio so I'll be buying additional ETFs to boost the income. Meanwhile, I'm thinking Bank of Nova Scotia, BNS, which had an improved recent quarterly report and TD Bank, TD.TO in the early days of October.